MOSCOW, September 18. / Tass /. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, previously voiced expectations for the export of grain in the 2018-2019 agricultural year (started July 1, 2018) in the amount of 44-45 million tons, lowered the forecast figure to 35-37 million tons. This was reported to TASS by the press service of the Ministry.
"If the grain harvest exceeds 105 million tons, the export of grain crops in the marketing year 2018/2019 could be about 35-37 million tons, including wheat - 30 million tons," said a ministry spokesman.
Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture noted that wheat exports could reach 35 million tons of the total grain exports in the amount of 44-45 million tons.
As the Ministry reported to TASS, in the 2018 calendar year, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia forecasts grain exports in the amount of about 46 million tons. "Currently, the fact of grain exports is 36.6 million tons, by the end of 2018, grain is expected to be exported in the amount of about 9 million tons" - said the representative of the Ministry. He also added that there are no prerequisites for the introduction of export duties.
As previously reported, in 2017, Russia harvested a record grain harvest of 135.4 million tons. A crop in 2018 is expected to reach 105 million tons.
Experts interviewed by RIA Novosti believe that grain exports slightly exceeded the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, while the agency’s interlocutors predict that in 2018-2019, grain supplies from Russia will decrease due to a decrease in the current year’s crop.
"We estimate the export of grain from Russia in the 2017-2018 agricultural year to about 53.2 million tons, of which wheat - almost 42 million tons. If we take into account legumes - this is 1.4 million tons, flour in recalculation for grain - 355 thousand tons and export to the countries of the Customs Union - another 980 thousand tons, then, in total, exports (in the 2017-2018 agricultural year - ed.) amounted to almost 56 million tons, "said Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC .
According to expert forecasts, the current grain harvest will be about 115.7 million tons, of which wheat - 71.4 million tons. "In connection with the decrease in yield, we assume that grain exports for the next agricultural year will be at the level of 45-46 million tons, of which about 35 million tons of wheat," added Pavensky.
The President of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, believes that the Ministry of Agriculture’s forecast for 2017-2018 has been achieved. “As for export forecasts for the next year, we expect 30-35 million tons, a decrease in these figures is associated with a decrease in yield. We first give a forecast of the harvest for 2018 within 107-110 million tons of grain,” the expert said to RIA Novosti.
The general director of the analytical center "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko also believes that the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture for the export of grain in 2017-2018 agricultural year achieved. "A total of more than 53 million tons of grain has been reached. The question remains - will it be a little more than 53 or closer to 54 million tons. According to our calculations, about 40.2-40.5 million tons of wheat is all of them. All this is grain, which went through customs. There is still grain, which went to the countries of the Customs Union from Russia - it is more than half a million tons, "said the agency interlocutor.
"The forecast of grain exports for the next (current agricultural - ed.) Year mainly depends on three things: on what crop will be harvested this year. According to my estimates, it will be 115-116 million tons of grain, including wheat “70-71 million tons,” the expert added. The interlocutor of the agency clarified that the export forecast for the new agricultural year also depends on the carryover stocks of 2017-2018, and on the global market conditions.
"The third item is more or less favorable. The market situation will be better than in the previous season, it is more active. The harvest this year is lower than in the past, although it is also quite large. It depends on how we collect it and in what regions it will lie - this is also important. If these three points are positive for us, then we can talk about the export of about 48 million tons of grain, "explained Petrichenko.
Grain exports from Russia in the 2016-2017 agricultural year (from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017) amounted to 35.474 million tons, including 27.075 million tons of wheat. Grain deliveries abroad in 2017 calendar year amounted to about 43 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects that the grain harvest in Russia in 2018 will be within 100 million tons. Last year, the Russian Federation received a record harvest in its history — 135.4 million tons, including 85.9 million tons of wheat. The grain harvest in 2016 amounted to 120.7 million tons.
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